Playoffs Week 1 Predictions: Six home playoff games headline competitive slate
Published 11:37 am Wednesday, November 6, 2024
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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor
It’s officially the most wonderful time of the year. No, it’s not Christmas time. It’s the playoffs.
We’ve been saying all year that this is a banner season for Shelby County football, and this week, we’ll finally get to see the fruits of that: eight playoff teams from Class 7A down to 8-man, with seven set to host home playoff games in front of their passionate fans.
This week will serve as a big test for multiple teams as they test their strength against some of the best teams in their classifications as the reshuffling of region pairings over the offseason brings us fresh, exciting first round matchups.
We’ve already seen some chaos this week as Cornerstone won its AISA Class A first round matchup against North River by forfeit, advancing to host the winner of Evangel-Montgomery and Southern Prep, and Chelsea’s trip to Saraland move up to Thursday due to potential weather.
With the table now set, let’s dig in to a fascinating feast of football as the entire state of Alabama enters playoff mode.
Last Week’s Picks: 7-2
Regular Season Record: 81-20
Shelby County (8-2) vs. Citronelle (8-2) (Game of the Week)
The battle of 8-2 Wildcats could be the most competitive matchup across the board in the county, and it all boils down to these two defenses. Shelby County’s has continued to be lights out and has allowed just 13 combined points in the last two games of the regular season. As for Citronelle, it hasn’t allowed more than 21 points since a Sept. 20 loss to Vigor, one of the two losses that it has on the season, both from top 10 teams. On paper, the units are razor tight, with Shelby County’s defense giving up 15.7 points per game and Citronelle’s surrendering just 15.9. That means something has to give, and I believe that something will be Citronelle’s run defense. Shelby County has proven that as long as it controls the ground game and wins the turnover battle by eliminating mistakes and capitalizing on big plays from the defense, it can win big games. You could argue the two times that Shelby County has lost all season it’s been because those things didn’t happen against St. Clair County (turnovers) and Demopolis (the run game). This one will be decided on the back of Shelby County’s big play potential and tenacity. And a packed-out Papa McCombs Stadium certainly won’t hurt either. Shelby County 21, Citronelle 14.
Thompson (7-3) vs. Daphne (7-3)
The Warriors have a chance to turn the page on the disappointments of the regular season and continue their momentum that they reestablished to close out region play against a Daphne side that looks like an even matchup on paper but really isn’t. Thompson holds the advantage in both offensive and defensive points per game, albeit a slim one in three points on the offense (30.9 to 27.8) and one on the defense (14.5 to 15.7). The difference though is in the quality of those seven wins. The Trojans have yet to get a signature victory this season as all of their wins are against 7A teams with a .500 record or worse along with 6A McGill-Toolen and Florida’s Pine Forest. Their three losses, and in particular, their defeats to Mary G. Montgomery and Spanish Fort, show a struggle to keep up with strong defenses as Daphne combined for 14 points against both of their toughest tests to this point. The Warriors not only have strong wins over 7A teams like Hewitt-Trussville and Vestavia Hills, but they have possibly the strongest defense that the Trojans will have faced all season. I believe this one will be won on the back of Thompson’s strong defense, but with a road trip to No. 1 Auburn High School potentially looming next week, the offense needs to once again have its best day of the season to keep momentum rolling into their biggest test to date. Thompson 28, Daphne 7.
Spain Park (10-0) vs. McGill-Toolen Catholic (6-4)
The Jags have plenty to celebrate with their first undefeated regular season ever, first region title since 2015 and first playoff game since 2017. However, it’s abundantly clear the Spain Park didn’t come this far just to come this far: this team wants to go deep. While the road will be long and difficult, it starts this week against a McGill-Toolen side that fought for its life last week just to get in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Jags are largely well-rested after coasting in each game since the James Clemens game. That could come into play and accentuate the differences on paper between the two sides. The Jackets gave up at least 28 points in all four of their losses to Daphne, Gulf Shores, Saraland and St. Paul’s, which is never a good sign going against a Spain Park offense that’s playing well. McGill-Toolen also hasn’t been able to keep up on the offensive end of the field, averaging 21.8 points per game while failing to gain much traction against the best teams on its schedule, including just three points against St. Paul’s Episcopal. That should set the stage for the Jags to lead the way with their defense once again while the offense capitalizes on opportunities to put this one away. Spain Park 35, McGill-Toolen Catholic 14.
Helena (6-3) vs. St. Paul’s Episcopal (8-2)
This is a fascinating matchup between two strong sides who could easily make a case for the crowded 6A top 10. To me, it all starts with the battle between Helena’s offense, scoring 35.3 points per game, and the St. Paul’s defense, allowing right on 10 points per game. The Saints have been strong even against some of the best teams in the state, holding No. 1 Saraland to a season-low 19 to make that a one-score game. Helena is definitely strong enough to hang with top defenses like we saw against Spain Park and Moody, but this is the biggest test the unit has faced since Oxford. To find success here, the Huskies will have to dictate the tempo on the ground and be smart about recognizing opportunities to gain positive yardage, whether through the run or the pass. Finding open playmakers no matter who they are, taking advantage of what the defense presents you and getting points out of Austin Lewis on stalled drives will all be absolutely crucial. However, I don’t believe it will be enough at the end of the day. While this Helena team is riding an incredible wave of momentum with a four-game win streak while playing its best football of the season, this is the biggest challenge to that win streak since it started. This St. Paul’s team is battle-tested by arguably the best region in Class 6A and will be plenty motivated after watching a No. 2 seed slip out of its hands last week against Spanish Fort. I believe the Saints will get enough stops to win a close one. St. Paul’s Episcopal 17, Helena 13.
Chelsea (6-4) at Saraland (9-0) (Thursday)
After enduring an absolute war with rival Oak Mountain, the Hornets have now gone from an undefeated 6-0 start with a hand on the region title to a four-game losing streak and a first-round road trip on a short week to a No. 1 Saraland side fresh off a bye. The odds are clearly stacked against Chelsea, but if there’s one thing Todd Cassity’s bunch likes doing, it’s proving the doubters wrong. They will need their best game of the season to take on the Spartans, who have been undefeated and lights out since their nail-biter loss to Clay-Chalkville in the state title game last year. Led by Texas commit KJ Lacey at quarterback, Saraland has averaged 41.7 points per game while making up for the loss of a particular 17-year old wide receiver with All-Star skill position players like Carson Gill at wideout and Santae McWilliams at running back. For all of this offense’s strengths, Lacey doesn’t like to use his legs, meaning the Hornets need to dial up the pressure and make life miserable for Saraland’s signal caller if they want to force stops and stay in this one. Even if they do that though, this Chelsea offense may not be in a good enough spot to capitalize. The Hornets have scored just 14 combined points in their last two games, and this week, they’ll have Antonio Coleman and a Spartans defense that is allowing just 10.8 points per game. Nothing’s impossible, but all signs point to Saraland being too much for Chelsea to handle. There’s no shame in losing to a tough first-round draw though, and this season still represents a positive step forward for Cassity and the Hornets no matter the result. Saraland 42, Chelsea 7.
Vincent (7-2) vs. Sand Rock (5-5)
Taking all the historical significance out of Vincent’s win over Montevallo last week, the Jackets desperately needed a victory in their season finale after a rough final two games of region play. After dealing with injuries and adversity down the stretch, positive momentum was huge, and now Vincent has that heading into a matchup with possibly one of the better 5-5 teams in Class 2A in Sand Rock. The Wildcats won both of their last two coming into this one but are battle-tested with losses to 2A No. 2 Pisgah, 1A No. 3 Spring Garden and 3A playoff side Collinsville. That said though, none of those losses were close, and I would argue the Jackets performed better against a schedule that’s at least as tough, if not tougher. Sand Rock has regained some of its offensive form recently but is still just scoring 20.5 points per game overall. This Vincent defense has the potential to dominate here and make life hard for the Wildcats, but they’ll need to do the opposite of Sand Rock and avoid their late season form. If this Jackets defense recaptures its early season form, I like their chances to at least compete with any team in Class 2A. I believe Vincent will get close to that form this week and find a way to win a close one, but this also feels like a matchup that this team could win handily at home if it plays to its full potential. Vincent 21, Sand Rock 14.
Evangel (9-2) vs. East Central (8-1) (ACSC Championship)
We’ve got an intriguing rematch on our hands for the ACSC title as Evangel is on a roll and looking to repeat against East Central, a team that the Lightning handled 57-25 in the regular season finale but one that just beat Southern Christian 29-6. That was just a 42-41 win for the Patriots in the regular season, which could suggest that this team has bounced back from its lone loss of the year. However, Evangel’s on a hot streak of its own thanks to a massive 59-20 win over Ezekiel in the semifinals where the offense continued to dominate with a high-performing day. I expect both teams to play their best brand of football in this one, but that still tips this one toward the Lightning. Evangel excels at finding ways to attack even the strongest 8-man defenses and reach the end zone, using blistering starts to put away opponents. Add in the motivation of capping off their season with another ACSC state title, expect the Lightning to take care of business and live up to the program’s championship standard. Evangel 45, East Central 25.