Week 6 Predictions: Non-region week brings new, intriguing matchups

Published 11:46 am Wednesday, September 25, 2024

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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor

After a breathless couple of weeks of region action, we have a week off from playoff stakes.

Before you stop reading and start making other Friday night plans, that doesn’t mean the Week 6 slate is any less entertaining.

The beauty of non-region play is that it allows us to see great matchups that regions could never bring us as teams move up and down classifications and battle teams from outside the greater Birmingham area.

We have plenty of those showdowns on deck this week, headlined by one of the most entertaining matchups of the last few years in Thompson and Clay-Chalkville, and top 10 teams like James Clemens, Oxford and Leeds will get a taste of how football is played in Shelby County.

With four teams on the bye, we have 10 matchups to dive into, so let’s take a look and hopefully keep this hot streak I have at predictions going.

 

Last Week’s Record: 10-2

Overall: 29-9

Teams on Bye: Oak Mountain, Calera, Pelham, Cornerstone

 

Thompson (4-1) vs. Clay-Chalkville (4-0) (Game of the Week)

The Warriors may have won each of their last four games after a season-opening loss to Grayson, but they haven’t had a complete, perfect performance yet this season. That was certainly the case last week as the defense needed to score three times to fuel a second-half comeback on the road at Vestavia Hills. While this Clay-Chalkville team is certainly not the state champion juggernaut it was last year with Jaylen Mbakwe playing both ways and Drew Gilmer at the helm, it has certainly been dominant to this point and can punish Thompson if it is not careful. This will be Thompson’s biggest test to this point, and conversely, it is for the Cougars as well. While Clay-Chalkville has scored 44.3 points per game and allowed just 3.5, those performances have come against inferior competition in Hueytown, Ramsay, Pell City and Shades Valley. The Cougars got into a defensive battle with Hueytown in the opening week of the season, and that defense is a far cry from the one they will face on Friday at Warrior Stadium. Thompson knows that it can’t take this game for granted after losing last year on ESPN2, but if it wins the turnover battle and gives the developing offense a short field to work with, that should be all the Warriors need to get a statement win. Thompson 21, Clay-Chalkville 10.

 

Chelsea (4-0) at Paul W. Bryant (0-4)

The Hornets just continue to impress after posting a season-high 56 points to reach their best start in nearly a decade. What was most impressive was while Chase Stracener continued to tote the rock well, he was joined by an improving Miller Bauman at the quarterback spot who is gradually making this offense multi-dimensional. Considering it is already scoring 32.8 points per game, the fact that it may not even be at its peak is scary. I also expect the defense to have a bounce-back game after going from facing a high-powered Calera offense to a Paul W. Bryant offense scoring just 9.8 points per game. On paper, this is a game that Chelsea should easily handle, but games aren’t won on paper, especially on the road. If this team is determined to win as many games as possible, it can’t get ahead of itself and needs to approach every week with the same intensity, region game or not. Todd Cassity should make his players do just that, and I like the Hornets to set the tone early and pull away from there. Chelsea 42, Paul W. Bryant 7.

 

Helena (2-2) vs. Oxford (5-0)

Helena dropped another close game last week that it had a chance to win late against a tough team, but in the end, it couldn’t get over the line. Spain Park and Moody are state title contenders in their respective classifications for a reason, and the fact that the Huskies got close says a lot about their quality. However, the key is flipping those close losses to wins, and that’s something that Oxford has excelled at during its 5-0 start. The Yellow Jackets boast a 56-46 win over Georgia’s Central Carrollton, a 24-21 win over Moody and just last week got a 29-28 victory over Mountain Brook. The key here is to start strong on offense so Helena doesn’t have to play catch-up later, but if that doesn’t happen, it will come down to its play in the final moments of the game. Since Oxford’s done that and the Huskies haven’t, I tip this one to the Jackets. Oxford 28, Helena 21.

 

Spain Park (4-0) at James Clemens (4-0)

I believe this one could be a sneaky good game since James Clemens has shown some quality to this point in the season. The 7A Jets are scoring 30.3 points per game and allowing just 16.5 per game, and they’ll be at home with Spain Park taking a long road trip to go north for this one. Like the Jags, they’ve had some close calls, but while Spain Park’s tight games were against Hoover and Helena, James Clemens’ were against Gardendale and Bob Jones. With all due respect to Gardendale and Bob Jones, they aren’t as good as Hoover and Helena. This will be the Jets’ biggest test of the season, especially with Spain Park coming in off one of its best performances of the season, holding a high-powered Benjamin Russell offense to just 15 points while pulling away and boosting its own scoring average to 36.8 points per game. This one could be similar to last week where the Jags defense sets the tone early and gives the offense space to do what it does best. Spain Park 35, James Clemens 17.

 

Briarwood (0-5) vs. Leeds (5-0)

It is a tale of two teams going in the opposite direction as the Greenwave are riding high as the No. 4 team in Class 5A, scoring 42 points in four of their five games this season, and Briarwood is still searching for its first win with not much of an offensive spark. The Lions have not been able to get much momentum going on the offensive side, especially early on, to match the effort that the defense has done to keep them in games. As a result, a 7-6 halftime lead against Carver-Birmingham and a 7-0 deficit to Wenonah at the break both turned into losses. In theory, it shouldn’t take much to push them over the line for their first win, mainly through cleaning up turnovers and penalties, but this does not feel like the get-right game that Briarwood needs. While I expect Leeds to do enough to break through the Lions defense, the good news is that it’s just a non-region game and Briarwood can use this one to learn more lessons and gain some momentum going into a crucial final three region games. Leeds 35, Briarwood 7.

 

Montevallo (1-3) vs. John Carroll (1-4)

This could be one of the most evenly contested games with how similar the two teams are on paper. Montevallo’s offense is averaging 15 points on offense compared to 13.6 from John Carroll, and while the Bulldogs are surrendering an average of 25.8 points per game, the Cavs are only a hair better at 25.6. Both teams have also taken losses to difficult opponents, with Montevallo dropping games to two of the top three teams in the region in Northside and Demopolis and John Carroll falling to Homewood, St. Michael, Ramsay and Carver-Birmingham. Games like this typically come down to a couple of big plays, and despite the defensive struggles over the past couple of games, this Cavs offense should provide some opportunities for the Bulldogs to get some stops. That could then pave the way for some big plays on the ground from Razareo Conwell or even through the air with Jordan Ward and Dee Cutts. I’d still like to see the offense evolve beyond those three playmakers, but this week should provide an opportunity for Montevallo to gain some momentum on both sides of the ball and capitalize on their rest from their bye week. Montevallo 17, John Carroll 10.

 

Shelby County (5-0) vs. St. Clair County (1-3)

Faced with their biggest test of the season to this point, Shelby County rose to the challenge and delivered. The Wildcats offensive line neutralized a very tough Northside pass rush and allowed Anthony Palmieri to run wild, and the defense looked unstoppable at its best with the way it got into the backfield and defended the perimeter. The team does have some things to work on, namely getting off the field late in downs and minimizing special teams errors, but this week, they have a great chance to keep rolling against a 1-3 St. Clair County side. They share a common win over Jemison by a similar score line, and the Saints are battle-tested with matchups against Montgomery Catholic, Moody and Center Point, three of the best teams in Class 5A. That means this game could get close if Shelby County isn’t careful and especially if it starts looking ahead to a potential region title game next week against Demopolis. However, if they come out of the gate and attack a defense giving up 35 points per game, that could set the tone and allow the Wildcats defense to get the stops needed to keep St. Clair County at bay. Shelby County 28, St. Clair County 14.

 

Vincent (4-0) at Childersburg (1-4)

Vincent has plenty of reasons to be happy with its 4-0 start, but now, it needs to be careful to not replicate the mistakes of the past. Just one year ago, after taking their first loss of the season to B.B. Comer, the Jackets continued slipping and lost this rivalry game to Childersburg 16-14. Now, they want revenge. This Vincent team is already healthier and more talented than last year’s group, and now, it all comes down to focus if its goals are to win as many games as possible and keep its momentum going into next week’s massive game against Tuscaloosa Academy. The Jackets defense has led the way over the past few weeks, allowing just six combined points in their last two region games against Lamar County and Sulligent. Now, they have a Tigers offense that’s scoring just 9.6 points per game and coming off a 12-0 loss to B.B. Comer. If Vincent carries over that same defensive mentality from the last few weeks into this one, the Jackets should get revenge over their rivals. Vincent 28, Childersburg 7.

 

Evangel (5-1) at Lighthouse (1-4)

Evangel just continues to rack up points in 8-man play and now is fresh off a season-high 68 points in its first ACSC game. The Lightning have used Kemp Swords and Eli Black’s dominance on the offensive side to get out to a big lead that can even survive when their opposition tries to get back in the game, which is what Ezekiel attempted last week with two fourth-quarter touchdowns. I expect similar results from the Evangel offense against Lighthouse this week, which is fresh off a shutout of Trinity Christian for its first win of the season, but even with that goose egg, the Warriors are giving up 41.6 points per game. I expect Evangel to attack Lighthouse’s defense and cruise from there. Evangel 55, Lighthouse 13.

 

Coosa Valley (1-3) vs. Evangel-Montgomery (3-2)

The Rebels dropped their second straight game last week after they couldn’t handle a fast start from Springwood. While a couple of touchdowns provided some bright spots for Coosa Valley, it will need to clean up turnovers and start getting stops on defense to compete in games like this. That will especially be key when facing an Evangel-Montgomery offense scoring 48.4 points per game. I expect games like this to tip toward the Lion until the Rebels start showing more consistency. Evangel-Montgomery 58, Coosa Valley 16.