On Sunday, Sept. 22 at 8:20 p.m. ET, the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our computer model predicts a victory for the Falcons — keep scrolling for a complete breakdown, regarding the point spread, total and final score.

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Despite sporting a bottom-five defense that ranks fourth-worst in the NFL (386 yards allowed per game), the Chiefs have played better on the other side of the ball, ranking 15th in the NFL by putting up 319.5 yards per game. With 305.5 total yards per game on offense, the Falcons rank 19th in the NFL in 2024. On defense, they rank 17th, surrendering 317.5 total yards per game.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

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Falcons Betting Info

• The Falcons have a 41.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Atlanta has won one game against the spread this season.
• The Falcons have been an underdog by 3 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
• Atlanta and its opponent have not yet hit the over in 2024.
• Games involving the Falcons this year have averaged 44.5 points per game, a two-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.

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Chiefs Betting Info

• Based on this game’s moneyline, the Chiefs have an implied win probability of 62.3%.
• Kansas City has a record of 1-1-0 against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread once when favored by 3 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
• All Kansas City games have gone over the point total this season.
• The total for this game is 46.5, 0.5 points fewer than the average total in Chiefs games thus far this season.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs 2024 Scoring Insights

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