Week 5 Predictions: Battle of unbeatens in Columbiana headlines great slate
Published 5:39 pm Wednesday, September 18, 2024
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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor
With one more week of region play to go until we hit a one-week break for non-region action, each team will certainly be on the hunt for a statement win in Week 5.
Luckily for them, this 12-game slate may be one of the more competitive ones of the season as each team has a chance to emerge victorious.
We’ll have plenty of entertaining battles across the county this week, including a county battle between Chelsea and Calera, what could be a firefight in Spain Park vs. Benjamin Russell, Thompson and Vincent taking high-profile road trips.
None of those are our Game of the Week though. That would be a battle of the unbeatens in Columbiana between Shelby County and Northside as one team will walk away with sole possession of first place in Class 5A, Region 3 and possibly a top 10 spot.
Last Week’s Record: 8-2
Overall: 19-7
Teams on Bye: Montevallo
Shelby County (4-0) vs. Northside (4-0) (Game of the Week)
Shelby County’s dominant start has been nothing short of phenomenal, and now, they’ll face one of the biggest obstacles in their way of contending for a region title. Northside has shown a lot of strengths in a pair of dominant wins over Montevallo and Cordova, particularly up front on defense and with big plays from the run game. The Wildcats have a lot of those same strengths, and those showed last week as the defensive starters brought the pressure to pitch a shutout while they were in the game and another standout rushing performance from Anthony Palmieri aided by the offensive line. The big difference here is consistency, as while the Shelby County defense has showed up in all four games to allow just 9.3 points per outing, the Rams went down to the wire with both West Blocton and Selma. That’s the main reason why I’m backing the Wildcats to improve to 5-0, but it’s also because I believe they match up very well against Northside. If the defense can get into the backfield and limit the run game while causing problems for the Rams quarterback, and if the offensive line can neutralize the defensive front, Shelby County should get to the halfway point in the season unscathed. Shelby County 28, Northside 10.
Thompson (3-1) at Vestavia Hills (1-3)
Now that I’ve watched the Warriors in-person three times this season, I can definitely say this team has come a long way from the side we saw on national TV in Week 1. The defense remains a calling card for them both up front and in coverage, and the offense can make plays both on the ground and in the air, something that some past Thompson teams haven’t been able to offer. Now, they’ll get a Vestavia Hills team which has struggled when matched up with elite offenses such as Auburn and Carver-Montgomery. I expect the defense to lead the way once again, but it will need to be careful to avoid the mistakes of the last two weeks. In both the Tuscaloosa County and Oak Mountain wins, the Warriors allowed a touchdown to trim their early 14-0 lead, which last week was caused by a penalty-plagued drive. They’ll need to make sure the door to making this one competitive remains shut for all 60 minutes, and if they do that, the offense should follow suit. Thompson 35, Vestavia Hills 14.
Oak Mountain (2-2) vs. Tuscaloosa County (0-4)
After facing a pair of elite offenses over the past two weeks in Prattville and Thompson, Tuscaloosa County’s average of 10.5 points per game should be a sight for sore Eagle eyes. The Wildcats are also fresh off a 30-0 loss to the same Lions team that Oak Mountain went toe-to-toe with in a one-score game. That means the Eagles should stack up well on both sides of the ball and Will O’Dell in particular will have a lot more space to make plays than the Warriors’ stifling defense allowed him a week ago. Expect a big performance on homecoming for Oak Mountain to get above .500 going into a bye week. Oak Mountain 42, Tuscaloosa County 7.
Spain Park (3-0) vs. Benjamin Russell (2-2)
In a week full of intriguing games, this one may be one of the more exciting ones since both teams have high-flying offenses. Spain Park is fresh off a season low in points, a mere 28 after scoring 38 and 39 in their first two games. That big performance against a solid Helena defense bodes well as they engage a Ben Russell offense posting 38 a game, including back-to-back 55-point outings. That said, those last two games were against Calera and Chilton County, and I firmly believe that while the Jags defense got into two-point games against both Hoover and Helena, they can get a stop when needed. In a shootout, that usually tends to be the difference, and if I’m relying on one of these two defenses here, it’s going to be Spain Park. Spain Park 35, Benjamin Russell 21.
Chelsea (3-0) vs. Calera (1-3)
Last week was a big moment for Calera under Scott Rials as the Eagles got their first win since Oct. 14, 2022 over Pelham behind their most complete performance of the season. Their reward is a Chelsea team that has grinded its way to a 3-0 start behind a strong defense and reliable run game. Calera should continue to find success in the air with AJ Johnson, but the Hornets pose a considerable turnover threat that can capitalize on any mistakes should they happen. If the Eagles can’t stop Chase Stracener in the trenches, that could lead to another long night as well. Both offenses should find success on this one with the momentum that they have, but Chelsea’s ability to stand tall when needed on defense makes me lean toward the Hornets. Chelsea 28, Calera 17.
Helena (2-1) vs. Moody (2-2)
While the Huskies took their first loss of the season, they showed tremendous fight against one of the early favorites in Class 6A in Spain Park. That is exactly the sign you need going into a difficult pair of non-region games, starting with 5A Moody, which has gotten off to a flying start in region play after taking a tough pair of losses to Gainesville out of Georgia and Oxford. Those two region wins were back-to-back shutouts that have the Blue Devils allowing just 13.8 points per game. Helena will need to bring its A-game in all three phases once again to compete, but I believe there’s a way forward for the Huskies to emerge victorious. If the Huskies defense proves up to the challenge and makes this a tight one, I like the offense to wear down Moody and get some explosive plays to tip this one in their favor. It won’t be easy, but a win here would go a long way toward solidifying Helena as a top 10 contender. Helena 21, Moody 14.
Pelham (0-4) at Chilton County (1-3)
Despite losing each of their first four games, the Panthers have gotten better over the course of the season and were in the game late against both Chelsea and Calera. It feels like Pelham has been building toward a game like this against a Chilton County team which only boasts a one-point win over winless Jemison on its resume and is giving up 39.8 points per game. Even if the Panthers defense allows a few scores, this is the perfect chance for Pelham to build off back-to-back 33-point performances on offense and get over the hump. As long as the Panthers consistently finish drives, they should head into their bye week with a complete performance and their first win to boot. Pelham 42, Chilton County 14.
Briarwood (0-4) vs. Wenonah (2-1)
The season isn’t over yet for the Lions, but they’ll need to turn things around fast to get back in the playoff hunt. Last week’s game was all about the passing, with Briarwood only earning 15 yards through the air after making big plays earlier in the season and allowing two big passing touchdowns as part of 20 unanswered points from Carver. The positives from last week were 200 yards on the ground and a good first-half defensive performance, but this team will likely need to succeed in all three phases over all four quarters to start flipping those close losses into wins. Wenonah is close to the ideal opponent for a must-win game as the Dragons only boast wins over Jackson-Olin and Midfield and narrowly lost to Corner. I believe this Lions offense at its peak can beat Wenonah, but they’ll need to prove it on both offense and defense to top a team they may need to beat for playoff positioning. Briarwood 14, Wenonah 7.
Vincent (3-0) at Sulligent (2-2)
Vincent got the exact result it wanted in its region opener after turning in their best offensive and defensive performances of the season in a 37-0 win against Lamar County. On the flip side, Sulligent had the worst possible performance going into this showdown with a 28-6 loss to Greene County, which only beat Lamar County 24-20. As a result of that game and their recent offensive struggles, the Blue Devils dropped out of the top 10, but this is still an important game in the race for the top of the region. If Vincent comes out and sets the tone on defense against a Sulligent side now averaging just 12.7 points in their last three games, I believe the offense will have plenty of room to make plays even if it’s not as high-scoring of a game as last week. Vincent 28, Sulligent 7.
Evangel (4-1) vs. Ezekiel (2-1)
The Lightning survived their first shootout of the season in a 52-42 win over the Freedom Cowboys, and that shows a lot about where this team is going into ACSC play. While the big ACSC tests against East Central and Southern Christian are likely to come, this week’s game against Ezekiel should be a solid start to conference play. This rivalry has seen some crazy things happen before, but the Knights lost 48-20 to Freedom back in Week 2 and haven’t had the quality of wins that Evangel has to this point, with only wins over Evangel-Montgomery and Lighthouse on their resume. After giving up 42 points last week, this Lightning defense is too good to get their team into back-to-back firefights, and I like them to get a bounce-back performance en route to a dominant win. Evangel 55, Ezekiel 15.
Cornerstone (4-0) vs. Southern Prep (1-3)
The question going into last week’s game against Springwood was whether it would resemble the blowout win in the 2023 state championship game or the overtime thriller in the regular season. It was definitively the former as the Chargers passed on of their biggest tests of AISA play with flying colors. Now, they’ll get a Southern Prep team that only boasts a win over Coosa Valley and has lost to Springwood and Evangel-Montgomery since starting Class A play. With Cornerstone’s defense as good as it’s been, the Chargers should dominate once again ahead of their bye week. Cornerstone 55, Southern Prep 6.
Coosa Valley (1-2) at Springwood (2-2)
Both teams in this one will be looking for bounce-back games against strong opponents after Coosa Valley lost 50-0 to East Central and Springwood fell 60-12 to Cornerstone. While the Rebels took a step back last week, they should have a shot against a Wildcats side that’s had a mixed bag to this point. The difference here is the offense. Coosa Valley has been hot or cold this year, posting a school-record 62 against North River but only scoring six in their other two games combined. Springwood has been much steadier and is averaging 37.5 points per game, including the 12-point outlier last week at Cornerstone. Until the Rebels prove to me that they can consistently perform near the level of the North River game, I won’t have as much confidence picking them as I do a team like the Wildcats. Springwood 44, Coosa Valley 20.