Second Round Predictions: Four county teams remain in battle for glory

Published 6:13 pm Thursday, November 14, 2024

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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor

With half the playoff field across the state now gone, only four teams from Shelby County are left standing to fight another week.

The Thompson Warriors, Spain Park Jaguars, Vincent Yellow Jackets and Cornerstone Christian Chargers have worked hard to get to this point and now will face some of their biggest tests of the season in order to survive and advance.

This week’s slate of second round games just about has it all: an offensive clash at Spain Park, Vincent’s battle for history against an undefeated top-five side, a rematch of Cornerstone’s toughest game of the season, and headlining it all, a likely Class 7A state title game in the quarterfinals.

Let’s dive in to this week’s action-packed schedule, starting with our Game of the Week on the plains.

 

Last Week’s Picks: 7-1

Overall: 88-21

 

Thompson (8-3) at Auburn (10-0) (Game of the Week)

This is the big one we’ve waited all year for. After their first two meetings took place in the state championship game, a change to the playoff format means we get to see Thompson and Auburn battle it out on a campus site for the first time ever. It’s a clash of two of the most complete teams in the state, but it’s one that the Warriors will not be favored in. For as good as Thompson’s offense is, which was more than apparent in last week’s 50-0 win over Daphne, the Tigers attack may be better. Powered by a 2,000-yard passer in Jackson Kilgore, Auburn is averaging 47.1 points per game and just dropped 63 points on Bob Jones. With the weapons that coach Keith Etheredge has at his disposal, including a quarterback who has only thrown two interceptions all year, the Warriors defense will need to play its single-best game of the season to prevail here. That’s not to say Thompson doesn’t have the talent to compete and win this one, but the defense will need to limit first downs and big plays and get off the field quickly while the offense will have to control the ball and get into the end zone even when it’s hard to break through the Tigers solid defense. For all the momentum that the Warriors have, Auburn may have more. I like Thompson to compete well here and challenge for the win in a one-score game, but there’s just one problem that prevents me from picking them: that part about a one-score game. It’s been said ad nauseum, but the Warriors are 2-3 in one-score games this season with all three losses coming in overtime by one point. Thompson has gotten it done in crunch time before, but this is a new test altogether. In short: I need to see it to believe it. Auburn 21, Thompson 17.

 

Spain Park (11-0) vs. Russell County (9-2)

The Jags got quite a first-round scare from McGill-Toolen in their first meeting since that fateful state championship game in 2015. This time though, Spain Park overcame a big scoring run from the Jackets to survive and advance, and I believe this Jags team will be better for that test. If anything, it continues to show that this offense led by Brock Bradley, Corey Barber, Dakarai Shanks and CJ Cowley can find a way to win even with its back against the wall. That fighting spirit should benefit the offense as it faces a Russell County defense that’s allowing eight points more per game than Spain Park’s counterpart. On top of that, while the Warriors have looked strong during a 9-2 season with an explosive offense averaging 39.9 points per game, they haven’t fared the best against the top teams on their schedule. They lost to Pike Road 46-14 in a game that decided the region title, dropped a matchup to a 5A Eufaula team that effectively has a losing record, and only beat Wetumpka and Stanhope Elmore by two scores or less. Having played a difficult region and non-region schedule, I believe that battle-tested nature of Spain Park will show in this one. Expect Tim Vakakes’ side to have a bounce-back performance and continue their positive momentum, which will be necessary with a road trip to Saraland likely looming if they win. Spain Park 42, Russell County 14.

 

Vincent (9-2) at Winston County (11-0)

This one admittedly looks like a mismatch on paper with Winston County scoring 13 points more per game than Vincent and allowing six less an outing, but the numbers don’t tell the entire story. Of Winston County’s 11 wins this season, only four were against teams with a winning record. On top of that, its normally strong defense (9.6 points per game) just allowed the single most points of any game this season in a 56-34 win over 5-6 Cold Springs, a rematch of a 27-6 affair back in September. To me, that tells me that Winston County’s schedule may not have tested it as much as Vincent’s has. This will still absolutely be a tough test for Vincent and it will likely take its best performance of the season to get the win. However, I believe this team is playing its best football of the season right now after a 50-0 win over Sand Rock. For all of Winston County’s wins this season, Vincent may actually have the more positive momentum going into their battle. More than anything though, I believe coach Lucas Weatherford’s side will be motivated by history. A win would make this team the first in program history to reach the quarterfinals. It’s been a goal for this program for years now, and this time, Vincent will get it done. Vincent 21, Winston County 14.

 

Cornerstone (10-0) vs. Evangel-Montgomery (6-4) (Thursday)

To get back to Montgomery next Thursday and play for a state championship, the Cornerstone Christian Chargers will need to face their toughest test from the regular season: Evangel-Montgomery. While the Chargers won their regular season meeting 34-26, they had to come from behind multiple times in the second half to keep their undefeated record alive. That close game benefitted them in their regular season finale to outduel Macon-East and could well do the same this week. I still believe this Cornerstone defense will be tested, but I expect them to learn something from their last meeting and play a stronger game than last time. Part of the reason why I still believe the Lions will test the Chargers is with their offensive prowess, scoring 46.6 points per game compared to 47.8 points per game from Cornerstone’s electric offense. With both teams able to score in bunches though, it will likely come down to the defense, and that greatly favors the Chargers. Add in the fact that Cornerstone is coming off a bye while Evangel is taking the field off a short week, and that gives James Lee’s side another advantage. Expect both teams to come into this one motivated to reach the Cramton Bowl, especially the Chargers playing for their large and influential senior class. Cornerstone 42, Evangel-Montgomery 24.