Week 11 Predictions: Pair of county battles headline last week before playoffs
Published 6:57 pm Wednesday, October 30, 2024
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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor
And just like that, we have a week left until the playoffs. Time flies when you’re having fun, as they say.
We’ve had plenty of fun this season with lots of entertaining games and unforgettable performances, and we’ll likely get to celebrate seven of those with home playoff games next week at Thompson, Helena, Spain Park, Shelby County, Vincent, Cornerstone and Evangel if it gets past Ezekiel in its playoff opener.
However, that means we’ll be saying goodbye until August to our other seven county teams this week as their season finishes. With all of them in action this week though, you can bet that all of them will be highly motivated to end the year on a high note.
We’ve got an unusually packed Week 11 slate with just Thompson, Helena and Cornerstone taking this Friday night off, and Halloween falling on Thursday means nobody opted for an early kickoff.
That gives us plenty of entertaining battles to dive into, including one of the biggest county rivalries every year in Oak Mountain and Chelsea and the first regular season meeting between another set of rivals since 2013 in Montevallo and Vincent.
I hit a couple of speed bumps in my predictions last week, but I was also just one point shy of my first-ever correct score as Helena and Calera finished 49-21 instead of my prediction of 48-21. That wasn’t me predicting the Huskies would miss an extra point, that was just me not remembering that 7 x 7 = 49.
And that’s why I’m a journalist and not a math major.
Last Week’s Record: 9-3
Overall: 74-18
Teams on Bye: Thompson, Helena, Cornerstone
Oak Mountain (3-6) vs. Chelsea (6-3) (Game of the Week)
The battle for the Greystone Chick-fil-A may be going on right now, but I expect this one to be even more heated on the football field come Friday night. Both teams will want to use this game to turn around recent fortunes and end the regular season on a high note as Chelsea slipped from a possible region title to a road trip to No. 1 Saraland with its current three-game losing streak and Oak Mountain struggling to regain its early season form across its four-game skid. While the Eagles showed some important signs on offense in last week’s loss to Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa, the defense gave them nothing to work with as the Patriots found the end zone on each drive outside the final one of the game, giving up 50 points in total. Chelsea’s offense may be in a tailspin, especially after last week’s 34-0 loss to Benjamin Russell, but this Hornets team can make big plays too both on the ground and in the air. That could make this one into a shootout if both teams come to play. However, that is the part that concerns me. While Chelsea desperately needs positive momentum going into next week’s game against Saraland and will want to get this win to earn that, this Oak Mountain team is playing with house money against a rival. This is the only game that the Eagles have in the front of their mind, and you can bet this senior class led by Will O’Dell will want to go out with a massive rivalry win. That combined with the offensive progression we saw last week will give Oak Mountain a close win. Oak Mountain 35, Chelsea 24.
Spain Park (9-0) at Gardendale (5-4)
Don’t tell the Jags that this game is meaningless. With a win, Spain Park would seal its first undefeated regular season in school history, and you can be sure that this group is motivated to go down in history as the first to accomplish that. They will have a fantastic chance to do so against a Gardendale team that can get in the end zone frequently with 27.2 points per game, but one that has failed to put up more than 10 against the elite defenses of Parker, Homewood and James Clemens. You can throw this Jags defense into that group as well as it has given up just 14.7 points per game this season and seven or less in four straight. If Spain Park lives up to its capability, this should be a breeze and allow for coach Tim Vakakes to rest some starters ahead of a massive first-round home game against either McGill-Toolen, Theodore or Gulf Shores as they fight for the final Region 1 spot in Week 11, putting the Jags at an advantage. Spain Park 42, Gardendale 7.
Calera (3-6) vs. Stanhope Elmore (4-5)
Calera’s game against Helena last week was mostly the story of its season: an above-average offense with big-play capabilities offset by a woefully below-average defense. I was still thoroughly impressed by what I saw from AJ Johnson’s ability to get the ball to playmakers like Cam Hagler, Braxton Brooks and KD Young and how Demetrius Davis complemented Johnson in the run game to chew the clock. Those are the reasons why I really like the Eagles’ chances against Stanhope Elmore in their season finale. The Mustangs have surrendered 22.9 points per game against arguably a weaker schedule, so Calera’s battle-tested nature could come into play for a big performance. Once again though, it will come down to the defense’s ability to get stops. Stanhope Elmore doesn’t have the most high-flying offense in the world at 24.1 points per game, but the Eagles are just two points better than them for an average of 26.3 a game. This one could very well be a shootout, but I believe that lends itself to Calera as it uses the run game to take more time off the clock while establishing the tempo of the game before Johnson’s trademark deep balls help the Eagles outpace the Mustangs for their fourth win of the year. Calera 42, Stanhope Elmore 28.
Pelham (1-8) vs. Fort Payne (7-2)
In my opinion, the Panthers had their best offensive performance of the season last week as they took the fight to a stout Leeds defense and was less than a minute away from taking a top 10 side out of Class 5A to overtime. While moral victories don’t count in the win column, Pelham should have a lot more momentum and confidence going into a bit of a wild card of a final game against Fort Payne. On paper, the Wildcats are head and shoulders above the Panthers with a seven-game win streak, an offense scoring 31.7 points per game and a defense allowing just 16.2 points per game. If this matchup happened a few weeks ago, I’d say Fort Payne wins this one going away. That may still happen, but it’s still an open question as to how much the Wildcats starters will play with a home playoff game slated for next week. If Fort Payne holds back at all, I could see Pelham making this a close one for a while, especially with the progress the offense made last week. However, I expect the Wildcats offense to be too much for the Panthers defense, which will tip this one in the visitors’ favor. Fort Payne 35, Pelham 21.
Briarwood (4-5) vs. McAdory (6-2)
The Lions continued to prove why they are playing like a top 10 team in Class 5A with a commanding win over Hayden. Granted, the Wildcats have struggled mightily this season, but Briarwood’s pass game got a chance to shine alongside its strength on the ground and the starters pitched a shutout on defense. The defense is now giving up 20 or less in six straight, and that is what has me pretty confident that the Lions can spring a sizable upset in their season finale. McAdory has been strong at the 6A level this season and is the No. 2 team out of its region, scoring 38.3 points per game and coming off back-to-back shutouts. The Lions have two things on their side though: they are battle-tested after facing a difficult schedule and motivated to finish out the season with a five-game win streak. Expect Briarwood to take the fight to McAdory and come out victorious in a tight one. Briarwood 21, McAdory 14.
Montevallo (1-8) vs. Vincent (7-2)
There are so many unknown factors going into this one that make it nearly impossible to predict. For starters, there’s a three-classification gap between the historic rivals with Montevallo at 5A and Vincent at 2A, but the Bulldogs have been lacking success this season while the Jackets have just a pair of losses. Vincent, however, is in a bit of a tailspin after a pair of uncharacteristically poor defensive showings in a win against Isabella and a loss to Greene County. With the team entering the regular season finale a bit banged up, self-preservation may be the goal for the Jackets with a home playoff game coming up next week. If Vincent holds back at all, that could pave the way for Montevallo’s offensive improvements to truly shine after a pair of solid showings against Sipsey Valley and Jemison. The Bulldogs have been trending upward despite their eight-game losing streak, and I believe that will show here should the Jackets continue their recent defensive form. I could see just about any result happening here, but I’m leaning towards a tight Montevallo win to finish out its season on a high note. Montevallo 28, Vincent 21.
Shelby County (7-2) at East Limestone (1-8)
With the Wildcats freshly rested from a late season bye week and a home playoff matchup against Citronelle slated for next Friday, they have loads of positives to take into a road trip to an East Limestone side that, frankly, has a lot less to be positive about. The Indians are scoring just 11.6 points per game and surrendering 36.7 per game, just about the opposite of Shelby County’s numbers (32.7 on offense and 16.7 on defense). The Wildcats will want to head into the playoffs both well rested and with a full tank of momentum, and they’ll get both of those here. Expect Shelby County to dominate early and often and allow the backups to take the reins ahead of the postseason run. Shelby County 49, East Limestone 7.
Evangel (8-2) vs. Ezekiel (3-4) (ACSC Semifinals)
The playoffs start now for Evangel, and they start out with the last team to defeat them in the ACSC playoffs: rival Ezekiel. That happened all the way back in 2021 though, and the Lightning have been undefeated in 8-man football ever since. Evangel’s offense showed up in a big way in the regular season matchup between the sides as it won 68-42. The offense has been clicking on all cylinders ever since with dominant wins over Southern Christian and East Central. With the Knights reeling ever since that loss with defeats in three of their last four, all signs are pointing toward another big win for the Lightning. Evangel 55, Ezekiel 26.
Coosa Valley (2-7) vs. Trinity (0-7)
The Rebels have been gaining momentum ever since returning to action two weeks ago, and that includes their latest win over Meadowview Christian in a tight 48-44 affair. The defense did a solid job of holding on to the lead down the stretch, and that puts Coosa Valley in a prime position to get another win against Trinity Christian Homeschool. The Eagles have been winless so far this season, and that includes a 52-12 loss to the same Meadowview team that Coosa Valley just beat. With Trinity looking vulnerable on both offense and defense, the Rebels should be primed to end the season on a high note, which will help this team out if it stays together and builds momentum off their late season success through the offseason. Coosa Valley 38, Trinity 6.