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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor

It’s officially do-or-die time for many teams across the county as the playoff picture starts to crystalize.

What each team needs to do to continue their season into November is now becoming clearer, and we have the chance to see region champions crowned, playoff spots clinched and home field advantage wrapped up across our 11 games in Week 9.

However, regardless of where each team is in the region standings, the message will be clear across the county: finish strong. Even for the teams eliminated, there are still plenty of games left to end the season on a high note and maybe even cause some chaos for the teams above them.

A familiar sight headlines our slate this week as Thompson and Hoover battle for the Class 7A, Region 3 championship, but each game has important implications in the race for the postseason.

Let’s go ahead and dive into my predictions and what I expect from each team after I posted just my second-ever undefeated week in picks.

 

Last Week’s Record: 10-0

Overall: 55-14

Teams on Bye: Briarwood

 

Thompson (6-2) vs. Hoover (6-2) (Game of the Week)

It’s exactly what we’ve come to expect at the end of the season: Thompson and Hoover battling it out for the region title. While we got a one-year break from added stakes in the regular season and a second postseason meeting, these two programs know each other well and will bring their best to what’s sure to be an electric atmosphere at Warrior Stadium. Both offenses are peaking at the right time after the Bucs dropped a season-high 56 points against Tuscaloosa County while the Warriors got a much-needed bounce back night by scoring 45 on the road at Hillcrest. Trent Seaborn is now looking much more like the quarterback he was last season with how he is able to spread the ball out to multiple receivers and running backs and make plays all around the field. I think he’ll build on that confidence this week even as he faces a tough Hoover defense giving up just 12.8 points per game. To me, the defenses will decide this one, particularly whoever wins the turnover battle. While Thompson’s defense gave up 20 points last week in the most points allowed since the Lipscomb Academy game, they’ve been stout all season long and have game-changing athletes all over the field. Big sacks from Jared Smith and Vini Pires, pass breakups from Anquon Fegans and turnovers from them and whoever else can step up will be big to flip the field and give the Warriors offense momentum and a short field to work with. Most importantly though, the Warriors can’t afford to look past this one into the playoffs. While a loss here isn’t the end of the world with at least a No. 2 seed wrapped up, losses to the Bucs like the ones in 2021 and 2022 would rob this team of valuable momentum down the stretch. This is a game where Thompson needs to prove itself as one of the state’s best teams, and I believe they’ll do so in another one-score game. Thompson 21, Hoover 14.

 

Chelsea (6-1) vs. Helena (4-3)

This game has flown a little bit under the radar due to the region title stakes of Thompson vs. Hoover and the Hornets’ loss to Spain Park, but this has the potential to be the best game of the week. The winner gets a No. 2 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs, and both teams will be hungry to secure that for themselves. However, each side is coming off a polar opposite result to the other. While Helena rolled early on offense and effectively pitched a shutout on defense in a 42-2 win over Pelham, Chelsea was held to just three points by a tough Spain Park defense. The Hornets did walk away from that game with multiple positives, mainly how they limited the Jags’ downfield potential and forced them to go to the ground. However, this Huskies offense is so balanced right now that even if you take away Torrey Ward and Nathan Jones from Nate Ferguson, he can still either make plays on his feet or hand the ball off to a pair of effective running backs in Jeremy Spratling and Dom Santiago. Helena’s traditional identity has been to dictate the tempo in the trenches, meaning players like Romello Cooper, Porter Schott and Briston Hardy will need to step up in the run defense to limit Spratling in particular, but also Ferguson and Santiago. The biggest key to me though is how Chelsea will respond to its first loss. We’ve seen how the Huskies have responded to adversity as they took their lumps from Spain Park, Moody and Oxford in back-to-back games and have been rolling ever since. While I believe this Chelsea team will show some fight in response, I don’t know if they’ll be able to make enough plays to keep up with Helena’s offense. Helena 24, Chelsea 14.

 

Oak Mountain (3-4) at Hewitt-Trussville (6-2)

While the Eagles are eliminated from playoff contention, a winning record is still in play with three games to go. They’ll have to bring their best brand of football into those games, including this one against a tough Hewitt-Trussville team. The Huskies took Thompson to the limit a couple of weeks ago, and just last week, they dominated a Prattville team that only narrowly beat Oak Mountain in a 49-7 showing. While the offense varied greatly between those two games, Hewitt’s defensive effort shined in both, which is part of the reason why the team is allowing just 10.9 points per game. I’m not sure the Eagles will be able to find a way to consistently crack the Huskies defense, especially when the offense failed to finish multiple drives against the Rebels. On the other side of the ball, the Hewitt offense presents a different kind of challenge for the Eagles. Oak Mountain has improved on the defensive side themselves after keeping Hoover and Vestavia Hills close before the games got away from them, but I can’t see them stopping the Huskies enough to offset what will likely be another strong night from Hewitt’s stout defense. Hewitt-Trussville 41, Oak Mountain 10.

 

Spain Park (7-0) vs. Calera (3-4)

It’s simple math for the Jags: win and clinch the region title. For Calera, it’s a little more complicated as they are still alive for a playoff spot but need to win out and have Benjamin Russell stumble along the way to make it. Despite the wide difference between their records, Calera is still a live underdog in this one with its explosive potential on offense. If the Eagles are able to eliminate mistakes and get the ball downfield with AJ Johnson’s arm, that could make this game closer than Spain Park is comfortable with. That said though, this will be the toughest test of the season for the Calera offense. I’ve been impressed by the Jags defense all season long, but I walked away from last week’s dominant performance against Chelsea firmly believing in its elite potential. Spain Park has now given up 10 combined points in their past two games powered by big plays from EJ Kerley, Fred Grooms and Joe Cross and is peaking at the right time, especially in pass defense. If the secondary leads the way and neutralizes Calera’s big play ability, the Jags offense should find a way to take advantage, especially with a susceptible Eagles defense. Spain Park 38, Calera 14.

 

Pelham (1-6) vs. Benjamin Russell (3-4)

The Panthers took a double punch to the gut last week in a 42-2 loss to rival Helena that also eliminated them from playoff contention for the second-straight year. The biggest question now with three games left is, how does this affect the team? Do they hang it up for the season or keep fighting for wins? I know what coach Mike Vickery wants, but it’s up to this young team to use these final games as opportunities to build their character and chemistry for the years to come while sending off the senior class right. They’ll have a chance to reverse some of that negative momentum on offense against a Benjamin Russell defense that is giving up 29.9 points per game and bounce back from scoring a combined nine points in their last two outings. However, the Wildcats have two key factors going for them that I believe will tip this one in their favor. The first is an electric pass game led by Alijah Johnson and Cedarian Morgan that has scored right on 30 points a game, which will go against a Pelham defense that has struggled mightily in recent weeks. The second is simply the fact the Benjamin Russell still has a playoff spot to play for, and that added motivation could be enough to decide this one. Benjamin Russell 35, Pelham 14.

 

Shelby County (6-2) at Selma (4-3)

The Wildcats can clinch a home playoff game as soon as this Friday with a win here and a Northside loss to Demopolis. To do that though, they will have to break a solid Selma defense that is allowing just 20.4 points per game and is coming off a bye week and a 26-7 win over Montevallo before that. That could make this a defensive battle with Shelby County’s defense allowing 18 points per game, but the difference is in the two teams’ offensive production. As I’ve said before, Shelby County’s offense is lightyears better than it was in 2023, which is the biggest reason why it has flipped its win total on its head this year. Selma’s offense is scoring only 21.4 points per game and has struggled in the team’s three losses to Demopolis, Northside and Fairfield. While those are admittedly solid teams, it does signal to me that the Saints aren’t quite on the level of the top caliber sides in Class 5A, Region 3, and Shelby County is one of those top caliber sides. Expect the Wildcats defense to have another strong night that paves the way for yet another region victory. Shelby County 28, Selma 7.

 

Montevallo (1-6) vs. Sipsey Valley (4-4)

The Bulldogs are now eliminated from playoff contention, but between this game and matchups with Jemison and Vincent to come, there are still plenty of opportunities to find success if they stay the course and finish the season strong. Montevallo had both positives and negatives in last week’s lopsided loss to rival Shelby County: it scored its second-most points of the season in 16, but the defense gave up its second-most points of the season in 42. That leans into both Sipsey Valley’s strengths and weaknesses. The Bears are giving up 31.8 points per game, which presents a great opportunity for Montevallo to continue its positive offensive momentum. However, they are also scoring 31.4 points per game, which is not a total you want the defense to allow after it couldn’t keep up with the Wildcats a week ago. Between that and the added stakes for Sipsey Valley with a playoff berth still alive, I don’t see this as the week that Montevallo stops its skid. Sipsey Valley 28, Montevallo 14.

 

Vincent (6-1) vs. Isabella (3-5)

The Jackets now control their own destiny for a No. 2 seed and will host a playoff game in they take care of business in their final two region games, starting with this week’s matchup against Isabella. Vincent faced one of its biggest tests of the season last week in the form of a tight first half on the road at Aliceville, but the Jackets pulled away from there with an improved second-half performance. They can take that momentum into this matchup as Isabella presents opportunities on both sides of the ball for Vincent to show its skill. The Mustangs defense has given up 33.6 points per game, including 32 in a runaway 52-32 win over Greene County last week. If the Jackets can crack the Isabella defense and reach the end zone early on, they could put up one of their best offensive performances of the season. A big offensive night would pave the way for Vincent to control the Mustangs offense that’s averaging just 23.4 points per game. Expect a much different game than last year’s seven-point loss, but that’s simply because this is a much different Vincent team than a year ago. Vincent 35, Isabella 14.

 

Evangel (7-2) vs. East Central (7-0)

Both teams saved their biggest test for last as the two best teams in the ACSC will square off with the winner clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That makes this game even more important for Evangel to win, but luckily for the Lightning, they’re trending in the right direction. The defense has gotten better throughout their undefeated run through 8-man play, giving up just 12 and 14 in their last two games, which has helped give the offense even more of a comfortable lead to work with. Evangel will need the defense to be on its A-game against an East Central offense scoring 48.9 points per game, even after last week’s season-low of 27 against Lighthouse. This one could be a good old-fashioned 8-man shootout, but with Kemp Swords and Eli Black, I believe the Lightning will be able to control the ball longer on the ground and use that to give the Patriots less time to respond to their scores. Evangel 48, East Central 30.

 

Cornerstone (7-0) at Evangel-Montgomery (4-3)

The Chargers are clicking on both sides of the ball and showed that in their 58-21 win over Lakeside. Now, they’ll have to keep their focus ahead of a potential undefeated battle with Macon-East next week since Evangel-Montgomery poses quite the threat on offense. The Lions have set a program record for points already with 64 against North River Christian and scored at least 22 points in each of their games. While that could test Cornerstone’s stout defense, Evangel-Montgomery doesn’t have anywhere near the same ability to get stops. That much was apparent in an 88-58 loss to Springwood in their last outing, which also set a program record, this time for most points allowed. With the Chargers offense averaging an unbelievable 50.7 points per game, as long as they take care of business on offense, that should be enough to outpace the Lions attack. Cornerstone 55, Evangel-Montgomery 24.

 

Coosa Valley (1-6) vs. Lakeside (2-4)

The Rebels have now forfeited each of their last two games after they weren’t able to go against Macon-East last Thursday night. While their first priority is obviously to be healthy enough to take the field on Friday night, ring rust will be another factor to deal with as this team hasn’t played in two weeks. That could be a problem in particular for the defense as it faces a Lakeside team that in last week’s game against Cornerstone posted the most points of any team against the Chargers in 21 points. Like most of Coosa Valley’s games this season, I believe the Chiefs will grab an early hold of the lead that the Rebels won’t be able to overcome. Lakeside 45, Coosa Valley 8.