Week 7 Predictions: Pair of top-six showdowns headline crucial week of region play
Published 3:20 pm Wednesday, October 2, 2024
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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor
After taking a brief break from region play, we’re launching straight back into it this week with nine great region battles.
Of those nine, three of them have massive stakes at the top of the region standings, including Thompson’s battle with No. 5 Hewitt-Trussville and Shelby County’s matchup against perennial region champion Demopolis.
Headlining that trio is our Game of the Week: a top-six battle in Class 2A as No. 6 Vincent welcomes No. 4 Tuscaloosa Academy in a game that will determine first place in Class 2A, Region 5.
That isn’t the end of the intriguing matchups as Pelham hosts Spain Park for a county battle and Helena, Oak Mountain and Briarwood face key tests. Chelsea and Montevallo will also be in action in potentially entertaining games, and Calera and Evangel will be in action outside their regions.
While we had a late change to the schedule after Coosa Valley forfeited this Friday’s scheduled county battle with Cornerstone, we still have 12 teams in action across 11 games that should make for one of the best weeks of the season. Let’s dive in.
Last Week’s Record: 6-4
Overall: 35-13
Teams on Bye: Cornerstone, Coosa Valley
Vincent (5-0) vs. Tuscaloosa Academy (5-0) (Game of the Week)
This is the game that both teams have had circled on their calendars since January, and both teams have plenty of momentum coming into this top 10 showdown. Tuscaloosa Academy has been strong on both sides of the ball since making the Class 2A quarterfinals last year, averaging 41 points per game on offense behind the state’s fourth-best passer in Preston Lancaster and allowing just 11.2 points per game on defense. That makes the fourth-ranked Knights a massive test for this Vincent defense, as to this point, the Jackets have allowed just 6.0 points per game and six points combined in their last three games. Grayson Gulde and the defense will need to limit TA’s impact throughout the game. While they can’t completely keep the Knights out of the end zone, a few stops would do the Vincent offense a big favor as it looks to keep pace. Winning the turnover battle and giving the offense short field to work with, especially as it leans on the run game, will be the biggest key here. It’s going to be a tight one, but I like the Jackets to find a way past TA’s explosive talent. Vincent 21, Tuscaloosa Academy 14.
Thompson (4-2) vs. Hewitt-Trussville (5-1)
Last week’s loss to Clay-Chalkville provided plenty of talking points, particularly about the ending, but the bottom line is that the final minutes wouldn’t have mattered as much if Thompson had found a way to get past the Cougars defense. With Clay bullying the Warriors defense on the ground for large stretches of the game until a stop came about, Thompson couldn’t answer on the ground and was left searching for an offensive response until late in the matchup. While the defense should get a lot of credit for eventually getting its stops, especially on the two goal-to-go situations late, as well as Trent Seaborn and his receivers for finding a way in the air, they’ll need to be more ruthless in getting off the field and into the end zone if they want to compete for a Class 7A title. This game will say a lot about the Warriors’ region title aspirations as Hewitt is averaging 37.2 points per game even with an 8-7 dud of a loss to Hoover, and allowing just 10.8 points per game on the other side of the ball. To win, Thompson will need to come out with a sense of urgency, get quick stops and find ways to engage its entire offense to overcome another stout defense. Last week needed to be a wake-up call for the Warriors, and I’m betting it will be in a low-scoring game. Thompson 14, Hewitt-Trussville 10.
Oak Mountain (3-2) at Hoover (4-2)
The Eagles are fresh off a bye and a win over Tuscaloosa County, a victory which simultaneously confirmed the dominance of their offense and resurfaced questions about the defense’s ability to get off the field. Tuscaloosa County’s 35 points that it posted on the Oak Mountain defense was almost as much as it scored in its first four games combined (42). That can’t happen again when facing a Hoover offense that, while scoring just 24.5 points per game, can wear you down and also make an explosive play when needed. If not, Will O’Dell and the offense will have another long day trying to outpace the Bucs. I believe the Eagles will have their moments even against a Hoover defense allowing just 14.3 points per game, but it likely won’t be enough against a Bucs team that’s battle-tested and motivated from a 14-10 loss to Parker. Hoover 35, Oak Mountain 14.
Pelham (1-4) vs. Spain Park (5-0)
The records might say otherwise, but both teams are coming into this one with as much momentum as they have all season. Before Pelham’s bye week last week, the team got its first win of the season against Chilton County. Spain Park, on the other hand, stayed undefeated with a huge 34-24 win at Class 7A James Clemens. Both teams showed tremendous fight down the stretch in those games, but what concerns me is how the Panthers allowed Chilton County to hang around in the first half. They can’t do that against a Jags offense averaging 36.2 points per game as Brock Bradley, Dakarai Shanks and Corey Barber have been on a roll all season long. I expect Spain Park’s offensive dominance to continue in this one as the Jags set the tone early with a fast start. That’s not to say Pelham won’t have its moments, because it’s also trending in a positive direction and Spain Park has been prone to let opponents get a little bit of traction in games. Spain Park 35, Pelham 14.
Helena (2-3) vs. Benjamin Russell (3-3)
Helena is coming into this crucial region battle on a three-game losing streak against Spain Park, Moody and Oxford, but there are plenty of silver linings. The losses to Spain Park and Moody were by a combined seven points, and with the Moody and Oxford games being non-region matchups, the Huskies are still 1-1 in region play. That would be good enough for the four seed if the playoffs begin today, so the key here is to stay focused, draw from the positives and fix the negatives. One of the biggest positives was the development of the Helena offense, which has started to show some serious skill in the air and on the ground despite posting just 10 points on a very good Oxford defense. Now, they’ll have room to attack a Benjamin Russell defense that is allowing 25.7 points per game and has looked very vulnerable at times. The Huskies will need to finish drives to compete with a dynamic Wildcats offense led by a 1,000-yard passer in Alijah Johnson and the school’s latest star receiver, Cederian Morgan, who is third in the state in total receiving yards. If Helena keeps pace on offense, I believe the defense will get enough stops to flip last year’s result as long as it minimizes big plays and prevents them from stacking. Helena 28, Benjamin Russell 17.
Chelsea (5-0) vs. Chilton County (2-4)
The Hornets did their job and maintained their focus in non-region play to keep their undefeated season going. As region play resumes, they’ll have a similar matchup against Chilton County where they should be heavily favored but can’t take their opponent lightly. Pelham, a team that Chelsea narrowly beat just a few weeks ago, struggled with the Tigers in the first half and were in a 14-14 tie before pulling away for the win. That said, I do believe the Hornets are a better team now than they were when they faced the Panthers, and that should show here. To dominate once again, they’ll have to do what they did last week at Paul W. Bryant: attack out of the gate on both ends of the ball. Last week, it looked like a Briston Hardy strip on the first play before Chase Stracener’s grinding runs and Miller Bauman’s big pass plays helped seal the dominant win. If the Hornets continue to get stops and turnovers on defense while showing their balance and explosiveness on offense, they’ll have little problems here as they set up a potential 6-0 showdown with Spain Park next Thursday. Chelsea 35, Chilton County 7.
Calera (1-4) at Brookwood (0-6)
With the Eagles fresh off a bye week, they have a very good opportunity to get their second win of the season, this time in non-region play against a struggling Brookwood team. The Panthers are scoring just 8.8 points per game and allowing 51.2, with a 39 spot against Chilton County in their last game tied for their season low in points allowed. That presents plenty of opportunities for AJ Johnson to have another SCR Stars-worthy performance in the air by finding his receivers for big plays early and often. On the opposite side of the field, the defense should get a big confidence builder going into its own game against Chilton County the week after. If Calera can build some momentum this week and next, that will pay dividends during a more challenging last two weeks of the season against Spain Park and Helena. Calera 48, Brookwood 14.
Shelby County (5-1) vs. Demopolis (3-2)
Obviously, Shelby County didn’t want to lose its undefeated record, but of all the ways for the Wildcats’ first loss to happen, a one-score game in non-region play is among the preferred ways. Now, it’s all about how they respond, especially with a matchup against Demopolis on deck with first place in Class 5A, Region 3 on the line. Shelby County will likely need a perfect game to walk out with the win, but that doesn’t mean the path to victory is impossible. Getting stops in the backfield is going to be key here to keep the Tigers on the backfoot, making Cooper Pennington and Eli Carlisle important to this one. They’ll have to limit a Demopolis offense that has scored 35 or more in its last three games. On the other end of the field, it’s all about cleaning up the turnovers and continuing to block effectively to get Anthony Palmieri and Ryan Sipes through the holes and into the open field. I think the Wildcats will compete and give it their best, but Demopolis is battle-tested and has momentum on its side. Demopolis 28, Shelby County 21.
Briarwood (1-5) at Corner (5-0)
I can’t say enough about how huge Briarwood’s win over No. 4 Leeds was last week. The Lions put together their best performance of the season and showed their true potential in the win, potential that had media members around the state tabbing Briarwood as a preseason top 10 team in Class 5A. A big key in that performance was the return of Luke Reynolds. We saw how dynamic he could be in the backfield last season as his insertion into the running back spot around this point a year ago propelled the Lions to the Class 6A second round, and if he’s healthy down the stretch, that makes games like this more winnable. Corner is another top 10 team in Class 5A allowing just 17.4 points per game, but the Yellow Jackets just allowed a season-high 28 to Jacksonville a week ago. This will likely be another defensive game, but the key to success remains the same: start strong on offense to give the defense room to work with. If Reynolds can dictate the tempo on the ground and start wearing down the Corner defense, that should set the stage for a couple of touchdowns and a massive win against one of the favorites for the region title. Briarwood 17, Corner 7.
Montevallo (1-4) vs. Selma (3-3)
The Bulldogs didn’t have much to stand up to John Carroll as their only touchdown of the night came off a short field by way of a fumbled punt. Montevallo hasn’t shown its explosive run potential in quite some time, and paired with a passing game that has failed to take off, has led to just 13.4 points per game. The team will get a chance to bounce back from its four-game losing streak against a Selma side on a skid of its own, a three-game losing streak against Northside in overtime, Demopolis and Fairfield. The Saints aren’t the most high-flying team in the world either, scoring just 20.7 points per game, meaning this clash will likely be short on points. That only amplifies the Montevallo offense’s need to capitalize when the opportunity presents itself to reach the end zone. I just don’t have the confidence in them to get over the line right now even though the potential is there and this is one of the more winnable games left. Selma 14, Montevallo 7.
Evangel (6-1) at Chambers (5-1)
Evangel has faced plenty of challenges over the last few seasons, but this could fairly be considered the biggest test in recent history, especially at 11-man. Chambers enters this one as the No. 1 team in all of the AISA and unbeaten in each of its last five games. The Rebels have outscored their Class AAA opponents 123-29 and average 40.5 points per game on offense while giving up just 13.8. A close game here would go a long way in showing the state their true talent at the 11-man level. The good news is the Lightning have been trending up on offense and were lights out in their previous 11-man games this season, which even helped them remain close against another AISA Class AAA team in Banks Academy. They should keep this one interesting for a while, but I believe Chambers’ defense will find a way to limit Evangel’s impact down the stretch and take a win here. Chambers 29, Evangel 14.