Week 4 Predictions: Three county battles headline intriguing slate

Published 12:39 pm Thursday, September 12, 2024

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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor

It may be hard to believe but the football season is almost a third of the way done. As always, the fall seems to fly by, but it’s certainly given us no shortage of action and storylines so far.

Six of the 14 teams in Shelby County remain undefeated, and while Chelsea will take its bye week on Friday after a thrilling win over Pelham, this week will see Helena, Spain Park, Shelby County, Oak Mountain and Cornerstone look to stay perfect. Two of those will clash in our Game of the Week between the Huskies and Jags.

On the flip side, Calera, Pelham and Briarwood all hope to finally get into the win column this year, and we’ll be guaranteed to see at least one of them earn their first win as the Eagles host the Panthers.

We’ll also get to see the best part of region play: more county matchups, and we have three of them this week when Thompson faces Oak Mountain, Helena hosts Spain Park and Calera battles Pelham.

I’ll also look to keep my strong form of predictions alive after the only pick that went wrong for me in Week 3 was Montevallo against Northside. Regardless of how I fare, I hope you enjoy another great slate of 10 matchups in Week 4.

Last Week’s Record: 11-1

2024 Record: 19-7

Teams on Bye: Chelsea

 

Helena (2-0) vs. Spain Park (2-0) (Game of the Week)

Two of the county’s remaining undefeated teams will square off on the hill in Helena after the Jags and Huskies kicked off the season in thrilling fashion. Spain Park rolled to a Week 1 victory over Sparkman before claiming a statement win at Hoover, and Helena gutted out a pair of road victories at McAdory and Chilton County ahead of their home opener this week. Both teams have shown their true character in those games and have proven they can withstand the toughest of tests, and it’s no coincidence that they’re two of the best coached teams in the county with Richie Busby and Tim Vakakes roaming their respective sidelines. Each team has found great success so far on the offensive end, with Jeremy Spratling shouldering the load for the Huskies on the ground and Brock Bradley taking command of the air early on for the Jags. That’s not to say either of these teams are one dimensional as Dakarai Shanks and CJ Cowley can get big rushing yards for Spain Park while Nate Ferguson is coming into his own as the Helena starter. While both teams are similar on paper, I think the Jags have the winning combination of momentum and fresh legs coming off the bye to get this one done. Spain Park 35, Helena 24.

Thompson (2-1) vs. Oak Mountain (2-1)

Thompson is rolling into region play fresh off their most dominant result of the season at Tuscaloosa County, while Oak Mountain is fresh off its first loss of the year in a competitive one against Prattville. This game will be decided on two fronts: Mike Dujon and the Warriors run game against the Eagles defensive line and Will O’Dell against the Thompson pass defense. Dujon has stepped into his own while Trent Seaborn gains chemistry with his new group of receivers, and I expect him and the Warriors offense to have another big day against an Oak Mountain unit giving up an average of 27.7 points per game. That will likely leave a lot on O’Dell’s shoulders to make plays. While he’s been one of the best players in the state to this point averaging over 300 all-purpose yards per game, he’ll go up against one of the best secondaries in the country led by Anquon Fegans and a potent pass rush anchored by a pair of Power 4 prospects in Jared Smith and Cam Pritchett as well as tackling machine Vini Pires. O’Dell will make enough plays to keep this one interesting for a bit, but Thompson should pull away from there to improve to 2-0 in the region. Thompson 42, Oak Mountain 21.

Calera (0-3) vs. Pelham (0-3)

Someone’s zero will go away before the end of this one as the two teams who’ve gotten so close but not quite across the finish line will battle it out here. The Panthers put together their best performance of the season against a difficult Chelsea defense last week, but ultimately Chase Stracener’s dominance on the ground sealed it for the Hornets. Flip over to Calera and it’s been much of the same story all season. The Eagles offense has been good enough to lead at times, but turnovers, special teams mistakes and a porous defense have left them still searching for their first win. Both teams have the goods to win this season, especially on offense with Calera finding success with AJ Johnson at quarterback and Pelham’s Kalib Porter and Dylan Smith growing into their roles. Pelham’s growth on offense should make the difference here when going up against the Eagles defense. Those chances will only be aided if they can use their secondary and pass rush to force mistakes from Calera and flip possessions in the Panthers’ favor. Pelham 28, Calera 17.

Shelby County (3-0) at Jemison (0-3)

We’ve known the Wildcats can get it done when they post a big number on the scoreboard, but last week, we learned they can still win a defensive duel like the 15-7 road trip to Sipsey Valley. That’s not to say the offense had a bad day as Anthony Palmieri ran the ball extremely well and showed that Shelby County has even more offensive pieces. That attack will likely look even better against a Jemison team that has given up 28.7 points per game and is going in the polar opposite direction to the Wildcats. Shelby County should win convincingly to get to 4-0, further cementing it as one of the best stories of the season. Shelby County 42, Jemison 14.

Briarwood (0-3) at Carver-Birmingham (1-0)

Lions fans: don’t press the panic button just yet. Briarwood’s three toughest tests are likely behind it, and just one of those was in region play. That should be an encouraging sign as the Lions face a more favorable schedule the rest of the way, starting on the road at Carver. Briarwood showed some great signs in the Ramsay game, namely how the defense kept the door open long enough for a second-half comeback that fell just short. If the Lions can get going quickly on offense here, that bodes well for them not just in this one but going forward. While the Rams had a good opener on both sides of the ball last week in a 26-7 win over John Carroll, Briarwood is a step up for them and that should show here as the Lions get their first win. Briarwood 28, Carver-Birmingham 14.

Montevallo (1-2) at Demopolis (0-2)

There’s no easy way around it: the Bulldogs got kicked in the teeth last week against Northside. From letting the Rams get into the backfield way too often to an inability to stop big plays on defense to major special teams errors, there were few bright spots in Montevallo’s region opener. Except, perhaps, that it was just the region opener. There’s still a long season left ahead of the Bulldogs, and I firmly believe they’re better than that result. Northside was just a good team that took advantage of a bad night. However, if Northside is a good team, Demopolis has historically been a great team and is the reigning region champion. That 0-2 record hides the fact that those losses were to 6A top 10 team Mountain Brook and 4A No. 1 Jackson. With the Tigers now looking for a bounce-back of their own, I don’t see Montevallo pulling this one out. That said, if the Bulldogs can compete and make some noise here, that says a lot about not only how they respond to adversity but how they stack up against Class 5A’s best. Demopolis 31, Montevallo 14.

Vincent (2-0) vs. Lamar County (2-1)

It’s homecoming night for the Jackets and the start of a new era as they start their first trip through Class 2A, Region 5. This week likely won’t be as much of a gauntlet as the schedule that’s to come, which includes a trip to top 10 Sulligent, a rivalry game with Childersburg and a visit from a state title contender in Tuscaloosa Academy all in the next three weeks. That means making a statement here is crucial. Vincent’s run game has been strong to this point behind Aiden Gasaway and Jayden Roberts, Casen Fields has started to find his rhythm in the passing game and the defense can get stops when needed and will only get better once fully healthy. If the Jackets draw from the tenacity they showed in the first two weeks and use their fresh legs off the bye to press the attack on both sides, this one should fall in their favor. Vincent 21, Lamar County 7.

Evangel (3-1) vs. Freedom (4-1)

After three weeks of 11-man play, Evangel is now back to its bread and butter of 8-man football. It won’t be an easy return to the Evangel Sports Complex as the Lightning will take on the Freedom Cowboys, the team they faced in the 2022 NHSA title game. Evangel has dominated Freedom in recent years, including a 50-20 win on the road last year. While the Cowboys haven’t lost since their season opener against national runner-up PAC, the Lightning have also been strong, including last week against Franklin Christian where they rode a massive rushing performance by Nick Cloud to complement another efficient night from quarterback Kemp Swords. However, it’s Evangel’s defense that continues to lead the way no matter how many men are on the field. While Freedom has averaged 44.8 points per game to this point, the Lightning should put enough of a cap on that scoring to see out a win. Evangel 44, Freedom 22.

Cornerstone (3-0) vs. Springwood (2-1)

After three convincing results to start out their state title defense, the Chargers will now face the same team they beat to earn that championship: the Springwood Wildcats. While the state championship game quickly got out of hand as Cornerstone rolled to victory, last year’s regular season meeting required overtime to decide a winner. However, the Chargers have grown as a team since then and now have an even more potent defense to go with their high-flying attack. Cornerstone’s ability to get turnovers in the past few weeks has impressed me a lot, and if they can win the turnover battle here, that could decide it if it gets close. Springwood’s defense, on the other hand, hasn’t gotten many stops and is allowing an average of 37 points per game. That could spell trouble against one of the best offenses in the state. Cornerstone 52, Springwood 22.

Coosa Valley (1-1) at East Central (3-0)

The Rebels got a big confidence-boosting win last week against North River Christian, not only winning handily but setting a school record for points in the process. They’ll need all those points and momentum as they take a trip to face East Central, which has stormed out of the gate with multiple big offensive displays, including a 54-8 win over North River in their last outing two weeks ago. If Coosa Valley gets out to a strong start on offense and flips the field off a couple of turnovers, I could see the Rebels competing well with the Patriots. East Central has had the more sustained success this season, so I lean toward them in this one. East Central 44, Coosa Valley 31.