Week 3 Predictions: Teams aim to make statements as region play starts
Published 9:05 am Thursday, September 5, 2024
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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor
After two weeks of intense non-region action, it’s time for the most important part of the season: region play.
Now is where we truly see how each team stacks up against its peers and sets the tone for the rest of the season.
Multiple county teams will enter region play riding high off big statement results, with Oak Mountain, Chelsea, Helena and Shelby County entering region play this week undefeated, with Spain Park and Vincent joining them next week.
On the other side of the coin, Briarwood and Pelham look to bounce back from 0-2 starts in two of the biggest matchups of the week.
Personally, I’m hoping to take last week’s momentum into region play after missing just two of my picks. Let’s dive in with this week’s slate of 11 matchups across Shelby County.
Last Week’s Record: 11-2
2024 Record: 18-6
Teams on Bye: Spain Park, Vincent
Briarwood (0-2) vs. Ramsay (0-2) (Game of the Week)
Both teams faced a challenging first two weeks after they each took a pair of losses to some of the hottest teams in the Birmingham area with Briarwood losing to Oak Mountain and Homewood and Ramsay falling to Parker and Clay-Chalkville. This region opener should be a chance for the two teams to show a more accurate picture of where they stand. I still believe these are the two best teams in Class 5A, Region 5 and whoever wins will be in the driver’s seat for the region title. With likely no Luke Reynolds once again, the offense will need to rely on the passing game once again, and the Lions showed some promise once again in that aspect despite the lopsided result at Homewood. If they can exploit a Ramsay defense that let Parker and Clay run roughshod on them, that will give Briarwood a chance. The bottom line is that the Lions defense needs to step up and keep opponents out of the end zone to give the offense a shot of keeping up. While I wouldn’t put Ramsay at the level of Oak Mountain or Homewood, this is still a dangerous team to go up against and I believe that the Rams will ultimately make a couple of big plays to seal this one away. Ramsay 24, Briarwood 17.
Oak Mountain (2-0) vs. Prattville (2-0)
This matchup quickly upgraded to one of the most intriguing games of the week after both the Eagles and Lions got off to solid starts. Much of that intrigue also comes from the similarities they share on paper, particularly on offense. Oak Mountain scored 38 points in both of its first two games against Briarwood and Pelham fueled by great all-purpose days from quarterback Will O’Dell. Prattville is just a hair behind the Eagles at 37.5 points per game in wins over Pike Road and Stanhope Elmore. They’ll be each other’s first 7A tests, and in particular, this will be a big step up for the Oak Mountain defense after they faced a pair of developing offenses to start the year. Despite completely neutralizing Pelham quarterback Dylan Smith, Kalib Porter and the run game stepped up to score 20 points, a worrying sign after allowing 28 to Briarwood. There’s a lot for both units to clean up after surrendering 15 penalties last week. While it’s been risky to doubt O’Dell and Shane McComb’s squad so far, I lean toward Prattville to eventually get a stop in a shootout. Prattville 42, Oak Mountain 35.
Pelham (0-2) vs. Chelsea (2-0)
It’s a battle of two county teams on opposite sides of the spectrum: one looking to continue its momentum from non-region play in Chelsea and another that just wants a fresh start in Pelham. In my eyes, both offenses share similarities in being more run-driven by the Panthers’ Kalib Porter and the Hornets’ Chase Stracener while their respective first-year starting quarterbacks develop more. However, flip it to the other side of the ball and it’s a completely different story. While Pelham’s defense has been a liability during the first two weeks of the season and let opponents take an early hold on the game, Chelsea’s has been an integral part in both of its wins over Mobile Christian and Wetumpka. The Hornets’ strong defensive front should play a key factor in this one to both neutralize Porter and put pressure on Panthers quarterback Dylan Smith. However, if Chelsea’s focus wavers after its best start since 2016, that could open the door for a Pelham upset. Right now though, I believe the Hornets defense once again leads the way to a win. Chelsea 21, Pelham 7.
Thompson (1-1) at Tuscaloosa County (0-2)
The Warriors looked a lot more like the team that played for the state title in each of the past six seasons in last week’s 28-21 win over Lipscomb Academy. Granted, there was a lot to clean up from that, particularly in the second half when the effort dropped and let the Mustangs get back in it, but Thompson still won. Both Trent Seaborn and Mike Dujon showed their playmaking potential on offense and the defense not only showed an appetite to get after the ball, particularly Vini Pires, but the elite pass defense from Anquon Fegans that was so key to last year’s success. I have no doubt Mark Freeman and his staff have been working to drill those lessons into the players to further fine-tune the team for their ultimate goal, which spells bad news for Tuscaloosa County. The Wildcats have a first-year head coach in Miles Holcomb and already dropped their opener to Central-Tuscaloosa and got blitzed 36-7 by 5A Vigor. They’re also led by Carter Dotson, a quarterback that the Warriors already have experience stopping from his time at Chelsea. Expect a big statement win from Thompson that it can carry into the looming gauntlet that is the rest of region play. Thompson 49, Tuscaloosa County 7.
Helena (1-0) at Chilton County (1-1)
Raise your hand if you’re surprised that Helena used the ground game to grind out a road win over McAdory. While these Huskies aren’t the same team that went 9-3 a year ago, coach Richie Busby has instilled them with the same DNA as those past successful teams, and that will take them very far. Now, they’ll get a Chilton County team that fell to one of the top 4A teams in Bibb County in their opener and only just got past 5A Jemison last week. Jeremy Spratling and Dom Santiago will certainly lead the way once again this week, but don’t be surprised if we get more explosive plays like we saw last week between new quarterback Nate Ferguson and Torrey Ward. Helena has won each of its six matchups against the Tigers in its history, and after a positive start from the Huskies, I expect them to make it seven on Friday. Helena 35, Chilton County 14.
Calera (0-2) at Benjamin Russell (0-2)
The good news is that two games into the season, the Eagles offense is lightyears beyond last year’s unit that averaged less than 10 points per game. AJ Johnson had another excellent passing day to anchor an overall solid offensive performance against Central-Tuscsaloosa. The bad news is that offense couldn’t finish on multiple drives and the defense did them no favors once again and has allowed 38.5 points per game through two weeks. The sooner those two things are fixed, the sooner that Calera will get its first win since 2022. That said, they have a solid chance to pick up a win against a Benjamin Russell team that also isn’t the same unit we saw last year, this time in a worse way. The Wildcats enter the matchup 0-2 and are prone to get into firefights themselves, allowing 31.5 points per game versus the 21 they average on offense. That means if the Eagles can keep pace with the Ben Russell offense, this would could feasibly tip to their favor. However, the Wildcats are battle-tested to this point after facing Opelika and Central-Clay, and this is the kind of matchup I could see their true potential show. Benjamin Russell 42, Calera 28.
Montevallo (1-1) vs. Northside (2-0)
While the Bulldogs fell short of beating Sylacauga last week, the one thing that encouraged me was how the defense performed against an established 5A side. A good defense that gets consistent stops will always take you far, and that’s a positive that Montevallo can take into region play. Games like that usually hinge on a few moments, and the Bulldogs certainly weren’t helped by the four turnovers that they gave up. Once the offense cleans up those mistakes and allows the defense to win the turnover battle, that should help flip losses like that into wins. They’ll face a Northside team that was also newly promoted from Class 4A, and while Montevallo opted to test itself against a Class 5A team, the Rams played two 4A teams in West Blocton, which they narrowly beat by two points, and Cordova, which was a 14-point win for them. The Bulldogs have proven more to this point in my eyes and I like the defense and run game to lead the way once again here in an emotional night honoring Korey Cunningham. Montevallo 21, Northside 7.
Shelby County (2-0) at Sipsey Valley (1-1)
The Wildcats continue to impress me this season. The run game continues to develop after another solid week from Devan Alexander and Ryan Sipes, but after I said I wanted more from the passing attack last week, Sipes showed great efficiency with a 7-for-8 night to go with his three rushing touchdowns. Combined with great defensive performances from Cooper Pennington, Cale Blevins and Eli Holliman that built off last season’s success on that side of the ball, this team is in a great spot heading into region play. Flipping back to the offense though, I believe that side of the ball will shine again against a Sipsey Valley defense that gave up 32 and 48 points in their opening two games. If Shelby County can establish an early lead by finding the end zone on the ground, the defense should follow closely behind. The Bears put some points on the board against 2A Greene County and 6A Jasper in those contests, but this will be the best defense they have faced to that point, and I expect the Wildcats to use another great defensive night to surpass last season’s win total. Shelby County 34, Sipsey Valley 10.
Evangel (2-1) at Franklin Christian (TN, 1-1)
Last Friday marked the end of an era for the Lightning as their 35-game win streak, the longest active streak in the state, ended at the hands of Banks. While Evangel ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard for the first time since 2021, it showed a lot about the state of the program by taking an AISA title contender down to the wire on the road. In addition, the team’s response to the loss has encouraged coach Tim Smith, which encourages me since I said going into the season that how the Lightning responded to the end of that streak would dictate their success for the rest of the season. This week will be another tough test as they face a Franklin Christian team that took them to the limit in Tennessee last year, and both teams will be looking for redemption after losses last week. Evangel’s defense continues to impress and makes me confident in picking the Lightning to start a new win streak this week. Evangel 28, Franklin Christian 14.
Cornerstone (2-0) vs. Meadowview (0-1)
The Chargers are riding high coming off a school record for biggest margin of victory with last week’s 70-0 win over North River Christian. It’s also the second-most points in a game in school history. When did they tie that record? Last year against Meadowview Christian when they hung 72 points. Cornerstone is clicking on both sides of the ball and Meadowview doesn’t look much improved from last year after taking a beating in its opener. I like the Chargers to improve to 2-0 in Class A play and continue their dominant run through the 8-man ranks. Cornerstone 64, Meadowview 6.
Coosa Valley (0-1) at North River (0-2)
Last week was a rough start to life in 8-man play for the Rebels after they lost handily to the ACSC’s Southern Prep. They did show a couple of positive signs in that game though, namely a three-turnover day from Jordin Rogers on the defense as well as a late touchdown. The key will be to take positives like that and continue to build off them with a team that’s still learning how to play the game together. Another positive to take into this week’s AISA Class A opener: North River is coming in off an even poorer performance against Cornerstone, losing 70-0. This game that could get messy but still be extremely competitive, and I believe Coosa Valley will take last week’s lessons and turn them into a win. Coosa Valley 32, North River 20.