Week 1 Predictions: Hope springs anew as 11 teams begin season
Published 3:20 pm Tuesday, August 20, 2024
- The time for talk is almost over and a full slate of Week 1 action is upon us, headlined by the Battle for 119 and an out-of-state showdown as 11 teams start their new season. (File)
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By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor
After 36 long weeks of waiting, it feels good to finally say this: it’s game week in Shelby County.
We’ve been anticipating the start of Week 1 since the moment the lights went out at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and with months of hype now in the rearview mirror, it’s time for each team to back up that talk on the field in their first games of the season.
For those who are new here, each week, I will break down every matchup before offering up my pick. Hopefully it helps you enter your team’s game a little bit smarter, or at the very least, offers up some bulletin board material.
As always, in the spirit of transparency, I will update you on my record for the week and the entire season before each week’s predictions.
While the Evangel Christian Lightning got a jump on the season with their opener on August 10, 11 more county teams will start out their season this week and begin their road to glory.
2023 Record: 108-21
Teams on Bye: Helena, Coosa Valley
Oak Mountain vs. Briarwood (Game of the Week)
Our lone in-county matchup this week is a big one as the two sides of Cahaba Valley Road duke it out in the Battle for 119 under a Heardmont sunset. The two stadiums sit just 3.1 miles away from each other, and both teams know each other well. Last year’s matchup was a bit of a rock fight as the Lions defense shut down the Eagles attack in a 21-0 win at Lions Pride Stadium. Both teams will enter this year’s showdown very different as we will get our first chance to see Briarwood’s new starters and Oak Mountain’s revamped playbook. For the Lions, I believe their key to success will once again be through the secondary. If Luke Reynolds and company handle Will O’Dell and the passing game, that should clear the way for the defensive line to establish the line of scrimmage. Reynolds will also be key on the offense to leading the way on the ground while Briarwood’s new quarterback settles in, meaning Caleb Jaworski and Nico Varvoutis need to set the tone up front on the other side of the ball. This feels like it will be a lot closer than last year, but I still think the Lions defense proves to be too much. Briarwood 17, Oak Mountain 7.
Thompson (0-0) vs. Grayson (GA, 0-1) (Thursday)
The Warriors will take the field with the eyes of the nation upon them on ESPN2 against a Georgia semifinalist this Thursday. No pressure for a team with multiple fresh faces on either side of the ball. As I’ve said throughout the summer, Thompson’s high-end players are exceptional. I’d match Trent Seaborn, Anquon Fegans and Jared Smith against anyone in the country. The problem lies in the three new receivers, four new offensive linemen and multiple players at linebacker and in the secondary who will need to integrate alongside them. As is typically the case when the Warriors play these difficult early-season matchups, it’ll be a trial by fire for the new starters. Grayson is no slouch after a great 2023 season, but the Rams got off to a shaky start in Week 1 with a 20-19 home loss to Collins Hill, which went just 5-7 in Georgia’s 6A last year. Add that to the fact that they’ll be playing on a short week versus Thompson which is coming in completely fresh, and that could be a difference maker. However, that could also work against the Warriors as Grayson not only has a game of experience but has also worked in pads for much longer. Mark Freeman has long harped on how much of a difference maker getting kids in shells early is. That’s not to say that Thompson doesn’t have a shot, but I think Grayson’s athletic second level will cause problems for the new receivers and make the difference here. Grayson 28, Thompson 17.
Calera vs. Northridge
It’s finally time for the Calera Eagles to show what the Scott Rials effect will be on the field. Rials not only brings an experienced track record of success but has also created some exciting changes on the team, particularly with the offense. Look for an improved passing game with AJ Johnson taking advantage of KD Young and a talented receiving corps as well as Demetrius Davis’ rushing attack behind an experienced offensive line. Since Northridge only went 3-7 last season and struggled mightily at times, I believe Calera has a good chance to snag a win right out of the gate. If they win though, I see it likely being a shootout unless the Eagles’ athleticism translates into getting stops up front. Calera 35, Northridge 21.
Chelsea vs. Mobile Christian
The Hornets will open up their new home bleachers and turf with a very interesting Week 1 matchup as they face the reigning Class 3A state champions Mobile Christian. While the Leopards ran through 3A with a 15-0 record, so much has changed for them since that crowning moment, including a move up to Class 4A, a head coaching change and losing two of their defensive stars. They do bring back Damian Gaston at quarterback, who threw for five scores in the title game, which makes Chelsea’s defense even more imperative to a victory. I’ve been buying stock in the Hornets defense all offseason with their strong front seven talent of Ethan Prickett and Romello Cooper as well as a lockdown secondary of Kenny Wesley and Grant Evans. If they’re able to get stops early, that will give Miller Bauman and the new-look offense some time to adjust to game speed. I think games like this are where Chelsea will show the experience it gained in Class 7A the last two years, and the Hornets should win this one comfortably. Chelsea 21, Mobile Christian 7.
Spain Park vs. Sparkman
This game is a great chance for Spain Park to get some momentum ahead of an absolute gauntlet over the next four weeks: Hoover, Helena and Benjamin Russell with a bye week thrown in as well. Sparkman comes in having lost five straight and with three of their five wins in 2023 coming against 0-10 teams. In those five losses, the Senators gave up an average of 36.2 points on defense, meaning the Jags offense has a great opportunity on hand. Expect Brock Bradley to dictate the tone of the game once again while showing his bond with his new receivers this year while Tim Vakakes also gives the backfield of Dakarai Shanks and CJ Cowley a chance to shine as the Jags take a step toward living up to their lofty preseason expectations. Spain Park 42, Sparkman 14.
Pelham at Pell City
Both sets of Panthers enter this one with lots of changes after Pelham lost quarterback Clayton Mains and defensive stars Will Felton and Bishop Rellah and Pell City picked up coach Nick Gentry after Rush Propst resigned. While many of Pelham’s younger players got some time to shine on the field last year, this is their first game in their expanded roles, making a showdown with a Pell City side that struggled last season a welcome matchup. I expect Pelham to lean heavily on its senior leadership, namely Kalib Porter at running back and Javien Gee and Hunter Drawhorn over on defense, while the newer pieces adjust to playing together in a game. This should be a great battle to start out the year, but I lean toward Pelham in this one. Pelham 21, Pell City 14.
Montevallo vs. Tarrant (Thursday)
These two teams closed out the 2023 season against each other at Theron Fisher Stadium, and in 2024, they’ll open up the first day of the season in the same place. That’s just about the only thing that’s similar from last year as both teams take the field for the first time after moving up in reclassification. Razareo Conwell and Dee Cutts had big games in this one a year ago, with Conwell rushing for 191 yards and three scores and Cutts finishing with 124 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Conwell will have to adjust to sharing the backfield with quarterback Jordan Ward, but he should have another big game along with Cutts, who already has a great bond with Ward. Expect the defense to get after the ball while the offense pulls away and kicks off the Garrett Langer era with a victory. Montevallo 35, Tarrant 14.
Shelby County at Lincoln
After spending all offseason refining their team culture, it’s now time to see if that leaves Shelby County as a better team on the field. With Lincoln averaging just 18.7 points per game last year on offense, the defense should once again lead the way for the Wildcats. Even without players like Eli Carlisle, returning stars like Cooper Pennington, Eli Holliman and Micah Swain should set the tone for the defense by getting stops and helping the newer pieces fit into a unit that kept Shelby County in a number of games last season. If that happens, the burden will then fall on the offense to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, something that didn’t always happen a year ago. That makes Devan Alexander even more key as he steps back into Bradley Horton’s shoes as the lead back, carrying the load on the ground to make up for a still-developing passing game. This team has the potential to bounce back and win games like this, but I’ll have to see it to believe it. Lincoln 21, Shelby County 7.
Vincent at Winterboro
The Jackets enter the year with tons of promise, but the challenges will come thick and fast starting with a non-region game against B.B. Comer next week. However, those challenges likely won’t start in Week 1 as Vincent faces Class 1A Winterboro, a team it beat 29-0 in Week 2 last year. I’ll be most interested to see how the defense continues to develop with a Grayson Gulde at linebacker and a very talented secondary. If they can hold the Bulldogs and continue their defensive form that made them third in the county last season, the offense should follow suit. Casen Fields and Jayden Roberts will both look to take big steps on that side of the ball. The Jackets should have another commanding performance to set the table for the road ahead. Vincent 35, Winterboro 7.
Evangel (1-0) vs. Abbeville Christian (0-0) (11-man, at Larry Simmons Stadium)
The Lightning looked as poised as ever in their opener against Arendell Parrott in Gatlinburg, showing big play potential on offense while getting after the ball and causing havoc on defense. I’m always amazed by Evangel’s ability to reload even while losing talented seniors, and that’s happening once again. This game will be a little different for the Lightning as they expand their lineup for 11-man football, but they’ll have a good first opponent to face in Abbeville Christian, which went 1-9 last season in AISA 11-man play. I’m interested to see how Tim Smith manages to translate Evangel’s successful 8-man schemes to 11-man and the players who get reps here thanks to the extra three spots on the field. I’d still like to see the Lightning add a solid running back to the backfield to pair with quarterback Kemp Swords after Caeleb Austin’s departure, but Swords should have no problems shouldering the load this week on offense. The Lightning should win going away and get some solid 11-man experience ahead of a tough road trip to Banks next week. Evangel 56, Abbeville Christian 7.
Cornerstone (0-0) at Lighthouse (0-1)
The defending AISA 8-man champions will kick off their season this week, and while many teams boast continuity from 2023, not many can say they only lost two seniors from a title-winning team. I’m really excited to see the many different dimensions that open up now that Zeke Adams and the rest of the offense have had more time to learn the system. That doesn’t mean quarterback runs and deep passes still won’t be a staple of the offense, but expect some diversification, especially against a Lighthouse team that will likely give them some room to open up the playbook. The reigning ACSC runners-up were easily handled 48-6 in last week’s opener against the Tennessee Heat, and Cornerstone will post a similar threat with a high-scoring offense and a solid defense. This is the Chargers’ lone chance to build some momentum ahead of AISA play starting next week, and I expect them to fully take advantage of it and turn in a dominant win to extend their undefeated run in 8-man play. Cornerstone 52, Lighthouse 12.